<aside> 🚀 The world is defined by core and unwavering macro trends that are undeniable. These trends can be demographic, geopolitical, technological, policy-related, etc.
In identifying these trends, there are various investment thesis that can be built that are congruent, anti-trend or a hybrid.
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Japan, China and other east asian countries are experiencing a declining birthrate. Thus, there are not enough younger workers to support an aging population of retirees and the social benefits promised to them. The US is experiencing slow growth and Europe is in a general decrease. African countries, however, have rapidly growing and young populations.
These demographic dynamics change how resources are structured in a society - from childhood education to retiree spending and purchasing characteristics for consumer products.
Robotics and AI are becoming more capable in displacing labor for various types of tasks (blue & white collared work). Investing in areas with technology offers a distinct technological advantage makes sense.
At the same time, labor will not be displaced from the workforce without a fight. Thus, labor will use technology to augment their own efficiency and compete against pure automation.
<aside> 🚀 This was the core thesis in my previous investment in Apprentice. The company’s AR solution augments the Pharma worker to be more efficient.
Similarly, recent CBVP investment, Kickoff has built a backend to augment personal trainers helping them to simultaneously manage more clients.
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Other Technological trends include: 5G/IIOT, Generative AI, Quantum, cheap and flexible sensors, VR glasses into more life-like environments, genomic sequencing, space, digitization of pro-tech, construction, etc.
US’s relative power vis-a-vis the world is diminishing compared to its zenith in 1945 after WW2 or in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The emergence of BRICS, SCO and other competing multi-national organizations is challenging the Washington Consensus. China has become a rival superpower and the next 20 years will be defined by the this rivalry.
GDPR regulations in the EU necessitated new compliance needs for major corporations. Many B2B software companies were born from this environment to create a handful of winners.
Similar things are happening with the current discussions regarding regulations on scope3 climate disclosures as well as web3/crypto.